B06 · Intermediate
B06 · Applied project
Pricing Lantern’s catering
Fictional case
December 2027. Ana is setting her catering prices for 2028. Every enquiry gets a quote from her quote sheet (B03): $60 setup per event day, a price per guest, $30 an hour of service for the first three hours and then $30 an hour for each barista (one per 40 guests or part of 40), $120 for a pastry platter and a $300 minimum. From 1 June she ran a test: for each new quote she tossed a coin to set the price per guest at $6.50 (the sheet) or $7.00. You have every quote for events in 2027 (181, apart from the law firm’s contract events and the two January events paid for in 2026): who the client was, whether they said they were comparing quotes, the event’s size and length, the price, whether Lantern won it, and the invoice for each event that went ahead. Won events were invoiced $85,880, the catering invoiced in Lantern’s 2027 accounts (F03). Lantern, its clients and every figure are fictional.
Ana asks three things: what an event’s invoice will be, what wins a quote, and whether $7.00 a guest is worth it. Work through the stages, then write her a memo.
What you will produce
- An invoice model for one-day events, read in dollars, with its checks (spread, influence) and what they change.
- A predicted invoice with an honest interval for a new enquiry.
- A model of what wins a quote, with the price test’s odds ratio and its uncertainty.
- A check that the test compared like with like, and why only the test-period quotes answer the price question.
- Expected revenue per quote at each price, and the odds ratio at which $7.00 would pay.
- A memo to Ana: the 2028 price, how sure the data let her be, and what to do next.
Loading the project…